So, I spent last weekend chasing after my kids at the Jersey shore. I had clearance from the wife to go to Borgata on Saturday night, but dare I say I didn't have the energy. My gambling activities for the weekend all took place at the boardwalk arcade. Surprisingly, I have incorporated aspects of game theory into playing these arcade games. I love playing the game I call the "quarter drop." There are sliding trays which push quarters over the edge. As you drop the quarters, they pile up until you get them to slide over the edge. Then you get tickets so you can redeem them for cheap crap that you could have bought a lot cheaper. So, I get two rolls of quarters and give one to the wife and dump mine into the quarter drop machine in like 6 minutes. Wife yells at me and I tell her to beat it. She thinks I am wasting too much money on this machine. She has never watched me play 20-40 holdem at the Borg.

I have done pretty well on the crane games. Some of these are really tough, as it is almost impossible to clamp an item and get it to hold all the way to the drop chute. They always fall off the wobbly hook. However, the basic strategy here is to get objects as close to the chute as possible, don't make the crane travel too far. Actually, I shouldn't give away all my secrets here, as I may play heads up vs. Hoss Tbf one day. He actually challenged me to this a year ago.

Finally, skee ball. I finally figured out that it's better to go for the 100 every time.

That is my life now.

Good job, Hoss! Congratulations to Matt "Hoss_TBF" Hawrilenko, who defeated Josh Brikis heads up in just four hands to win the 2009 World Series of Poker Event 56 - $5,000 Six-handed No Limit Hold'em.

These math guys just had a party at their house, I think another one is in order.

Great job, Hoss. Maybe we will do that heads up crane game competition one day.

Ok, I still love poker, even though I never play anymore and never update this blog. It's been a good week for the math geeks, as co-author of "The Mathematics of Poker" Jerrod Ankenman has taken down his first bracelet in the Event 42: $2500 8-game mix. Congrats to him, book sales should increase by at least one, but I have to get them to re-design the front cover, featuring walmart dice chips and cheap cards. As a chip/card aficionado, this doesn't do it for me:



The math guys all stay in a house together for wsop, they said they were doing poorly up until now, and hoss_tbf and Math of poker other-co-author Bill Chen are doing well on day 3 of the $50k horse. Gus hansen leads currently in the horse, but my man Doyle has busted out.

How about Phil Ivey lighting it up for 2 bracelets, winning a ton of cash on his sidebet bracelet props, and then Jeff Lisandro topping Ivey with 3 bracelets! Year of the pro?

I'm sad I had a conference this weekend and was unable to do a dead-money repeat in the $1500 Limit holdem shootout. I may try to do this event next year. The event lost a little this year b/c it was on the same day as the $50k horse, but still managed to draw over 600 entrants. In the past, this event was held two days before the main event, and drew all the big name pros who were shooting for that last bracelet opportunity before the main event. The guy who won this event last year was at my table, Matt Graham, has won another bracelet this year, in the PLO $10k event. I would say "congratulations," but he was pretty much a dick to me in my first ever wsop event.

Go hoss, go hoss, go hoss...Ok, I like Jen Harman better, but if either one wins I will be happy. I get all my news from pokernews.com.

I learned some limit stuff from Jen's chapter in Doyle's Super system 2. I learned stranger stuff from watching Hoss at midnight on my couch playing $1k/2k limit on fulltilt.

Some say Hoss is the best limit player in the world, but jen is no slouch, and I think Phil Ivey may have something to say about that.

I'm really bummed I couldn't make it to vegas this year. Work related stuff. I'm already plotting for next year, if they still have the limit shootout. They scheduled it this year right around the $50k horse, so I get the feeling the field is going to be very small. In past years, the limit shootout was the last event before the main event, and it was all big name pros trying to get that last bracelet before the main event. I really love that event, because you don't have to sit there folding for two days only to bust out on the bubble with nothing to show for it. Last year, I was able to bust out in 2 1/2 hours with nothing to show for it, then I tilted on cash games for three days. This year, no such luck.

I found this old hand history on my laptop. Not sure why I saved it, but maybe b/c I found the betting strange. Why sit there and check down this hand? "Caseyatthebat" is the late chip reese. Stellar lineup for a game here:

Full Tilt Poker Game #1316196715: Table Compton (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 22:09:52 ET - 2006/11/27
Seat 1: Gus Hansen ($12,687)
Seat 2: Flopitza ($8,595)
Seat 3: bacina ($69,474)
Seat 4: sbrugby ($107,380)
Seat 5: CaseyAtTheBat ($45,400)
Seat 6: profbackwards ($12,797), is sitting out
sbrugby posts the small blind of $200
CaseyAtTheBat posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Gus Hansen raises to $1,400
Flopitza folds
bacina calls $1,400
sbrugby folds
CaseyAtTheBat calls $1,000
*** FLOP *** [2h 4s Ac]
CaseyAtTheBat checks
Gus Hansen checks
bacina checks
*** TURN *** [2h 4s Ac] [8d]
CaseyAtTheBat checks
Gus Hansen checks
bacina checks
*** RIVER *** [2h 4s Ac 8d] [3s]
CaseyAtTheBat checks
Gus Hansen has 15 seconds left to act
Gus Hansen checks
bacina checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Gus Hansen shows [Kd 3c Qs Kc] (a pair of Kings)
bacina shows [Jh 9s Th Ah] (a pair of Aces)
CaseyAtTheBat shows [3h 5s As Qh] (a straight, Five high)
CaseyAtTheBat wins the pot ($4,398) with a straight, Five high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,400 | Rake $2
Board: [2h 4s Ac 8d 3s]
Seat 1: Gus Hansen showed [Kd 3c Qs Kc] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 2: Flopitza didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: bacina (button) showed [Jh 9s Th Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: sbrugby (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: CaseyAtTheBat (big blind) showed [3h 5s As Qh] and won ($4,398) with a straight, Five high
Seat 6: profbackwards is sitting out

On an episode of "High Stakes Poker" a few years back, we were introduced to businessman/poker player Guy Laliberte, founder of Cirque du Soleil. Doyle Brunson said during one of the big buyin specials on HSP, "the only guy that can afford to play in this game is Guy."

It is rumored that as far as online poker games go, Guy Laliberte is considered "the biggest loser." From this report, he has racked up some serious losses in the last few years...

Go back to the beginning of 2007 and things are even uglier, as there are a combined $24.8 million in losses between these five accounts. [believed to be used by Guy.]

This reminded me of Andy Beal, the subject of Michael Craig's excellent book, "The Banker, the Professor, and the Suicide King." Here are two individuals who have so much money, they can afford to basically take poker lessons at thousands of dollars per hour.

Another guy who has played poker in a casino is Bill Gates. The Bill Gates who still stands at number one as far as the wealthiest men in the world. Only difference is, he plays in games like 3-6 limit holdem. Now, financially, I'm no Bill Gates. Ok, nobody is, but, I'm no Andy Beal either. Or Guy Laliberte. I'm barely paying the mortgage. But 3-6 limit? I could not sit there and play this game. No chance, never, no freaking way. Then again, I guess there is no limit in which Bill Gates would get "hurt." So maybe for him it's a matter of "what's the difference?" If he plays 3-6 or 3000-6000, he's still the richest man in the world at the end of the day.

Anyway, this got me to thinking, what would I do if I had that kind of money? All these guys are billionaires. Two of them want to play with the best, the other one just wants to play. Personally, I think I would rather play with the big boys, but I'm a fanboi so that's not really fair. But even so, if you could play basketball against Michael Jordan or a random stranger, which would you prefer? I don't think it's a simple answer. Some people just hate to lose, so playing against Jordan would not be a good thing. What about golf? Is it better to beat a no name player or walk the greens with Tiger Woods? I would prefer to play with Tiger, but I'm sure some people think otherwise.

I thought this was interesting, but I'm not sure how others feel about this.

A lot of high stakes poker matches going on these days. Not me, of course. My poker these days is boring and awful. I have huge swings (huge for me anyways) in trying to learn short stacked no limit cash games. But on to the real high stakes, i.e. the Tom "Durrr" Dwan online million dollar challenge. I have to admit, I have not followed the challenge too much, but I love this stuff. So far, Dwan and Antonius have played 4000 hands into their 50,000 hand heads up match. This challenge is awesome imo, and I will try to follow it live whenever possible. I am a sucker for sweating big stakes online poker, and this is just the coolest thing ever for me. Full tilt is promoting this as well, and if you follow the link to michael craig's blog, there is another link for fulltilt's updates. They are even doing "hand replays", but I have not looked into it too much. What's also sick, is that Dwan and Antonius are playing other games against other people, and not exactly for low stakes, either.

I don't know if any of this is being filmed, since it's all online games. With all the shadiness in the online world, one has to wonder if Antonius and Dwan are in the same room, laughing all the way to the bank. I sure hope not.

I sat down and watched two poker shows tonight, ok, well I got through the first one. Neither of these shows is actually new, but they are new to me, and so I must review them. I don't feel like writing too long, as I have not played online in a while and now I am in the mood.

1. Full Tilt Poker Million Dollar Cash Game.

Well, the title of the show is a mouthful, and it doesn't leave much to the imagination. Apparently this is season two, I'm not sure if I ever saw season one. The lineup is stellar, despite the lack of non-fulltilt pros. The format is very similar to high stakes poker, with a few exceptions. The ESPN/WPT hole cams are replaced by the Euro-style glass-hole table, same as HSP. (Did I just say glass-hole?) Anyhow, there is a piece of glass in the table with a camera underneath it, the type of hole came previously seen on Britain's Late Night Poker and Poker Superstars International. The game is a full ring game, I believe nine handed. The one twist is that there is a record kept of each players' winnings or losses, and the players' stats are shown periodically. The player with the most profit at the end of the one hour edited show gets a cheesy trophy. Also, in a strange twist, players can get up and leave, and then come back if someone is threatening their commanding lead.

Anyhow, it's a pretty good show because the players are great, the stakes are high, and the format was basically plagiarized from high stakes poker. The downside is that it's too short, and there are few if any players not affiliated with Full Tilt.

Grade: Overall, I give this show a B-. Entertainment value is an A but originality is a D. Still, can't turn away from Ivey vs. Antonious in an $800k pot.





2. Club WPT.

Well, the name is short and sweet, and would have meant something good had it come out five years ago. I could come up with other names, such as Club WTF, Club OMFG, or Club STFU. Actually, I would call it "Club LOL," because there has never been a show in the history of television to have that winning combination of ugly and uninteresting people who also happen to be really terrible poker players. Plenty of shows have had one or the other, i.e. WSOP and Celebrity Poker. But to have both, this is the show's death knell. Or was it the "WPT" part. Regardless, it will be a race to see which event happens first, the cancellation of this show or the delisting of WPT stock. Should be a good race.

Grade: Incomplete.

Just kidding. F.

I love how poker-heads get mad at movies which show *unrealistic* hands at the most critical points.

Hand history courtesy of highstakesreport.com


No easy way to write about something as filthy as this Hand History. Enjoy folks!

Full Tilt Poker Game #1830086866: Table Vasari (heads up) - $200/$400 - No Limit Hold’em - 14:21:11 ET - 2007/02/19
Seat 1: Son-in-Law ($67,608.75)
Seat 2: durrrr ($77,241.75)
durrrr posts the small blind of $200
Son-in-Law posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
durrrr raises to $1,200
Son-in-Law raises to $3,600
durrrr calls $2,400
*** FLOP *** T♦ T♠ 7♥
Son-in-Law bets $5,000
durrrr raises to $15,700
Son-in-Law calls $10,700
*** TURN *** T♦ T♠ 7♥ 5♥
Son-in-Law checks
durrrr has 15 seconds left to act
durrrr bets $57,941.75, and is all in
Son-in-Law calls $48,308.75, and is all in
durrrr shows 6♥ 8♥
Son-in-Law shows T♥ T♣
Uncalled bet of $9,633 returned to durrrr
*** RIVER *** T♦ T♠ 7♥ 5♥ 4♥
durrrr shows a straight flush, Eight high
Son-in-Law shows four of a kind, Tens
durrrr wins the pot ($135,217) with a straight flush, Eight high
Son-in-Law is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $135,217.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: T♦ T♠ 7♥ 5♥ 4♥
Seat 1: Son-in-Law (big blind) showed T♥ T♣ and lost with four of a kind, Tens
Seat 2: durrrr (small blind) showed 6♥ 8♥ and won ($135,217) with a straight flush, Eight high

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the day the music died. For an excellent summary of that fateful day in 1959, check out Dr. Pauly's blog entry. It was a day way before my time, but I always loved that song by Don McLean, a one-hit wonder. The song has amazing references, although McLean will never tell. Love that song. So sad.

How did I get myself into this mess? (  More chips behind the cut, just a few of my now-massive collection. )

I have been playing a fair amount of online poker on stars, limit, 6 max. I have been doing well, moving up from micro limits to now low limits, and hopefully soon, middle limit. I want to do what Chris Ferguson did, go from micro to $10k, but I would just keep going. I don't have anywhere near $10k, and using the bankroll management formula I am using, and playing the number of hands I have been playing, it's gonna be a while.

I have been working on some strategies along the way, not sure how good they are, and how effective they will be as I move up. Some of these strategies:

Playing pretty much any ace, at least in an unraised pot. There are tons of unraised pots in these low limit games. I wonder if this works at 6 max as the limits go up.

Completing the small blind almost 100% of the time. I may raise if I have a strong hand or if it's folded to me, but I pretty much never fold it if it's unraised. Pretty sure this won't work at higher limits. Also, I usually fold to a raise in the SB.

Playing small pairs from any position. Hitting a set will win most of the time, and often the small pair itself can be enough. Lately I have been raising a lot with small pairs, from all over, and with good results. I tend to call more in late position, not sure if this is good or not.

Stealing from the button and cutoff. I always knew you could steal from the button, but in 6 max, you can pretty much steal from anywhere. I like the cutoff steal a lot b/c it's not as obvious. I will mix it up and try to steal from all over, but I don't overdo it. If it's folded to me on the button, I will probably raise about 40-50% of the time and pretty much never limp.

Defending the big blind. At low limits, you don't get the type of aggression you normally see. I think part of this may be my game selection as well. I don't spend a ton of time researching games, but will basically look for tables with an average of one buyin on them. I defend the big blind to one raise 98% of the time, to two raises at least 50%, etc. I don't like my blinds being taken, and a good flop in a multiway pot can make out of position less relevant. I'm playing for a flop here, if I don't get it, I can fold to a bet. If I think I can steal the flop, I may try, but I don't want to go too far if I don't have anything. Also, I will check the big blind in an unraised pot 90% of the time. I may raise with drawing-type hands, or middle pairs, will almost always raise with big pairs, and usually check small pairs. If I'm heads up with the small blind, I may try to raise it once in a while, but I'm not a real big fan of that move.

There's a lot more, but I think some of these little things are making me a decent player. I understand that most of the players at low limits are really bad, but I am still getting experience. I think my hand reading skills are improving, but it's a lot harder at 6-max than full ring. I would classify my play at this level as "tight-aggressive," but I just hope it's not too predictable.

from yahoo finance, re: wpt stock:

Form 8-K for WPT ENTERPRISES INC

11-Dec-2008

Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Change in Directors or Principal


Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.

On December 4, 2008, the Board of Directors of WPT Enterprises, Inc. (the "Company") authorized a limited exchange of stock options with certain Company employees. The Company, in individually negotiated transactions, offered to exchange outstanding stock options held by certain employees for new stock options to be priced at the closing market price of the Company's common stock on December 10, 2008. The vesting of the new stock options was restarted and one quarter of the stock options vest annually on the anniversary of the date of grant. The new stock options also have the revised acceleration on change in control terms described in the Current Report on Form 8-K dated December 8, 2008. On December 10, 2008, the Company cancelled 847,000 stock options and issued 807,000 stock options to 10 employees.

I think this is very unusual, and basically a slap in the face to shareholders of this pos stock. The stock options previously issued to employees are now basically worthless because the stock has underperformed so much. So the new options are based upon the current crappy price, so basically it's a "second chance" for a failing company to reward "certain Company employees."

If only my wife's company would do this!

"Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you're making a smart move, but it doesn't take into account who you're playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you're facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that's something you can only develop by playing."

--Phil Ivey.



Anyone who follows the world of high stakes online poker probably has heard about the big games between Phil Ivey and Matt hoss_tbf Hawrilenko. A few weeks back, Ivey took over $1 million from Hoss over a 3 day span playing limit holdem. Hoss gave phil the old Roberto Duran "no mas," and the twoplustwo forums lit up like a Christmas tree. For me, this was bittersweet news. Obviously, the juicy details of a high stakes poker game between two of my bestest-favorite players in the world was just too good to be true. But I have taken such a liking to hoss lately, and I felt really bad about what happened. Now, I know he's a big boy, and it's all part of the game, variance, blah blah blah, etc. It was a heartbreaker that the best limit holdem player in the world, the guy who just announced to the world that he never said it, said it. "I quit."

I really felt awful about this. I have had delusional feelings that these local guys Hoss and Bill Chen would let me come over and teach me the intricacies of limit holdem. I was just thinking that I would buy Chen's "Mathematics of Poker" and become a "mini-hoss." Blah blah blah. Life goes on. But I am curious about what the consensus is with these games, especially when hoss says he is done playing ivey. Did Ivey crack the Davinci code? Is it just variance? Does hoss have an exploitable leak?

I hate to be such a fanboi, but I simply can't get over my ivey worshipping. I mean, I have followed his career for years, both live and online, and he never ceases to amaze me. I have heard that some of his best traits are people-reading and the ability to switch gears, which would explain how he could be a fixture at the big bellagio game. The same traits are said to belong to guys like doyle, barry g, and the late chip reese, the 3 biggest-known names of that same big game.

So back to the math-guy thing. I wonder what was meant by the whole "optimal play" strategy, in which I believe it's more geared towards how you play vs. how your opponent plays. That said, Hoss has posted in his blog about how he plays differently vs. different players, so I don't really understand this concept. Regardless, I couldn't help thinking about a certain final table from the WSOP a few years back. It was down to two players: Terrence "not johnny" Chan and the cowboy Hoyt Corkins. I watched the hand histories from pokernews, and was kind of shocked at how tight Terrance was playing. Now, don't get me wrong, Terrence is far and away one of the best players in the business, and a zillion times better than me, but I was just wondering if he had any idea of Hoyt's game, or if it even mattered. Heads up, hoyt was raising everything, and terrance was folding. Hoyt was the guy who went all in about 55 times in a row at the WPT Foxwoods a few years back, sending Phil Hellmuth into a tizzy. Anyhow, I only bring this up b/c I know terrance is a big math-o'-poker guy, and I thought about that wsop matchup today.

I look forward to hoss making a big comeback, and maybe there can be some type of a heads up challenge some day. Hmmm, Mori, are you listening?

For all the wpt bashing I have done in the past, this is sad news for me on so many levels. The Borgata Winter Open is no longer a WPT event. Oh, of course the Borg is still having the "Winter Open." After all, everyone knows how wonderful atlantic city is in January! But anyone who has played in any WPT events knows it's not just about the main event going from a $10k buyin to a $3k buyin. A WPT event brings in lots of poker-famous players, media, and onlookers who otherwise would be nowhere near AC in the middle of winter. So what does this mean? Well, I thought the WPT is nearing its end as we know it, but company insiders Lyle Berman and Steven Lipscomb are buying shares like crazy. There is rumor that the US Gov't will legalize online poker soon, and therefore make WPT a nice buyout candidate for Fulltilt or stars. Oh well, we shall have to wait and see.

Also, the pokerstars event in mexico was just canceled mid-stream, I'm too tired to link, but it's pretty amazing how f'd up that country is. Apparently, the wrong people were bribed down there, and they shut down the tournament before it ended.

Not really a big thing, but I always wanted a shout out from Dr. Pauly. I'm surprised he didn't include my analysis of the motley fool article.

"Warren Buffet hates Vegas. Warren Buffet hates gambling...

...Who gives a shit?"

I do love 60 minutes, even if the stories are sometimes slanted. I have been afraid of playing high stakes (well actually "medium stakes") games online, for a number of reasons. I put a few hundo online but don't even play much anyhow. This story is so juicy, it should get good ratings. And speaking of juicy, I may have found a nice private game about which I am very excited.


Watch CBS Videos Online

I never post here anymore, let alone about baseball. But I am a big time PHILLIES fan, and the last few weeks have been amazing for me.

I will be at the game tonight, with Cole Hamels on the mound, trying to bring redemption to these hungry and worthy fans.

The Phillies always remind me of my father, who used to watch "those bums" on tv every single night. He was the prototypical Philly fan. Not a battery-throwing, swearing jackass, as the rest of the nation views us. My pop was just a loyal guy. Period. Although he was not born in this country, let alone this city, he was a passionate sports fan, and the Phils were his #1 team, probably because these were the only tickets affordable enough to buy for his kids. He would take not only his own kids, but some others from the neighborhood as well. He was an awesome guy, and I really miss him. We sat through so many bad, awful Phillies seasons, but he would never let me change the channel. As much as we hated those teams, we still watched, with the hope someday they would turn things around and actually win something.

Tonight, I will think of my father. This one's for you, pop.

GO PHILLIES!

Last night I sweated the table "Matt Hawrilenko" on fulltilt. I only had a few minutes to spare, but it didn't matter. hoss_tbf was complaining on his lj blog that he's been in a slump recently, and some "vultures" were coming around to pick his vulnerable carcass. "But they're not really vultures..." was his comment. Last night, in the fifteen minutes I watched, one of these so called vultures got taken down from $70 to zero as I sat there with my mouth open. Obv. it's not hard to lose $70k playing $2k/4k, but still...

Then Matt is gracious enough to chat with losers like me, who have nothing better to do than watch people play poker. Someone asked him if he played live, and he said mostly at Bellagio, but online is so much better for obvious reasons. He then said he was recently in Vegas, and David Oppenheim issued an open challenge to the room: a $1 million heads up limit holdem match. So hoss says, "ok, you're on," to which DO replies, "...well, you'll probably not show up anyway." Then hoss says, "well, if not limit holdem, how about a steel cage match?"

Man, I love that guy. I offered hoss to help him design his new poker chips, but he's in good hands already, going with custom asm chips by pokerchips.com.

My poker bleeding continues. I went to the Borgata about a month ago, and it was unusually dead, but whatever. I saw few familiar faces, so I'm wondering if this poker fad is losing steam. Anyhow, I was meeting friends for drinks, so I only had a few hours to play. I was going to play the ten game, but there was an opening in the twenty, so I said, well, ok then. I absolutely hate playing under-rolled, which was the case that night. I was rolled for the ten, so when my stacks got decimated in the twenty, my confidence dropped, and I was just really anxious. To top it off, my friends came and sweated a hand which they thought was interesting, to say the least.

I picked up ace ten off, I think middle position, I raised and got 3 callers. Flop comes K J X, ok, here we go. Bet, call, I call, call. Turn is a blank, bet, raise, fold, I think for a minute and call. I'm like almost zero behind, river...ten, BINGO. Man I suck!!!!!

For the record, I'm a fairly tight player, and in a full ring game have no problem mucking ace ten off, or even ace jack. So, my desperate gambling paid off, and then I got pretty hot, and back to even before going upstairs to play ten dollar blackjack with my friends (borrrr-ring!). It was a fun night tho.

I'm thinking of going to AC on Saturday while the wife is out of town with the kids, maybe borg or harrahs, but my no limit cash game is so bad, I should probably stick to the borg if I go by myself.